Short-term Poisson goals are low (~2.2) and the 6-match view makes over 2.5 a clear outsider; the 12-match trend is only marginally pro-over. That creates a reasonable value case to back under 2.5 at 2.20.

odds available at 09:45

The short-term analysis model identifies a significant edge on under 2.5 goals, suggesting the market is underestimating the likelihood of a low-scoring game. This is supported by low recent expected goals figures for both teams and their poor recent form.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams have shown consistent goal-scoring and conceding tendencies, with predicted BTTS odds (2.30) lower than the market back price (1.70). The medium-term form and Poisson expected goals also support a high likelihood of both teams scoring.

odds available at 09:45

A combined Poisson expected goals total of 2.17 points to a tight, low-scoring derby. The market implies a much higher probability for goals, offering excellent value on the under based on the underlying scoring metrics.

odds available at 09:45

The short-term projection strongly favours a lower-scoring match, with combined expected goals close to 2.2. The medium-term data is less decisive, so the stake is reduced despite value against the market's 45.5% implied probability.

odds available at 09:45