The ELO model gives fair odds of 1.53 for Hibernian, against market 1.45. Hibernian's ELO rating of 1631 dwarfs Kilmarnock's 1367. While Hibernian's short-term form looks weak at 0.5 points per game, Kilmarnock's is worse at 1.17 with a -7 goal difference and both teams show poor scoring. The medium-term picture is more balanced but the structural ELO advantage and home field create clear value at this price.

odds available at 09:45

The scoring projections do not support the market's high-goal expectation, with both recent and medium-term estimates pointing to under 3.5 being more likely than the odds imply. This line gives a cushion even if the match reaches two or three goals.

odds available at 09:45

Hibernian hold a large ELO advantage over a weak Kilmarnock side, with the ELO model fair value around 1.53 against a 1.45 market price. Home strength and superior baseline rating point to genuine value on the favourite.

odds available at 09:45

Hibernian's weak short-term form of 0.50 points per game and negative goal difference mean the market's 1.47 price overvalues them, with Poisson and goal-difference models projecting fair home win odds between 1.90 and 3.75.

odds available at 09:45