Across both sample windows the models make Over 2.5 around 1.75 with total expected goals near three, so 2.04 is generous. Both teams are rated more likely than not to score, reinforcing the overs angle.

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Both teams have shown a tendency to score in recent matches, with predicted BTTS odds (1.67-1.74) lower than the market back price (1.78). The Poisson expected goals (1.16 and 1.81) and recent form suggest an open game with scoring opportunities for both sides.

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Both the 6-match and 12-match Poisson models project combined expected goals of approximately 2.97-2.98, and both windows price Over 2.5 at fair odds of 1.75 versus the market's 2.04. This consistency across timeframes gives confidence in the signal. The analysis data here reflects Premiership-level competition, making it reliable. Both teams were in European action on Thursday which could contribute to fatigue-induced defensive lapses.

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The totals data is more convincing than the match-odds data here. Both time windows price over 2.5 shorter than the market, with expected goals around three, so the offered price looks a little too generous for a game with solid scoring potential.

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Both the short-term and medium-term analysis models calculate fair odds of 1.75 for this match to feature over 2.5 goals, reflecting strong combined expected goals figures. The market price of 2.04 implies a much lower probability, creating a clear value gap. While both sides were in European action on Thursday, their high-scoring victories demonstrate attacking form that supports the statistical projection of an open, high-scoring game.

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Fair value for Over 2.5 sits around 1.75 on both windows, implying Under fair value near 2.3, so the 1.94 back price on Under offers modest value. Combined Poisson expected goals sit around 2.3-3.0 which is borderline, but the shorter window aligns with Under and both teams show poor recent form.

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Motherwell's recent away form and goal difference suggest they have a higher chance of winning than the market implies, offering value at the current odds.

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ELO model strongly favours home win at 2.10 vs market 2.28, and 12-match home form (1.75) exceeds away form (1.50). However, short-term form is poor (1.17), Poisson gives away team higher xG (1.81 vs 1.16), and goal-difference models conflict. The edge exists but signals are mixed; staking at moderate level with caution.

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Both short and medium-term statistical models consistently project a high-scoring match, with a combined expected goals value near three. The market odds offer solid value against these stable projections, avoiding the conflicting signals present in the match winner market.

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The over 2.5 fair price is consistently shorter than the market across both recent and medium-term samples. The expected-goals profile is close to three total goals, making the market's sub-50% implied probability look too low.

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Both the short-term and medium-term statistical models are completely aligned in pricing the fair odds for Over 2.5 Goals at 1.75, representing a strong 8.1% edge over the market back price of 2.04. This high-scoring expectation is supported by recent competitive performances, with both teams coming off highly productive European qualifying fixtures. Meanwhile, today's other fixture is skipped because St Johnstone's recent division change distorts their historical form metrics.

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Hibernian hold a substantial ELO advantage at home, with the ELO model pricing them around 2.10 versus a market back price of 2.28. The medium-term match odds model also favours the home side more strongly than the market, and home advantage at Easter Road supports the edge.

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Both statistical windows give over 2.5 goals fair odds near 1.75, compared with the available 2.04. The Poisson projections are also consistent, estimating almost three total goals.

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Both the short-term and medium-term goals models price over 2.5 at around 1.75 against a market price of 2.04, a consistent 8-point probability edge, with combined expected goals near 3.0 in both windows. Both sides are already in competitive rhythm from European qualifiers and have been scoring, and the both-teams-to-score model mildly supports the same direction.

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The predicted fair odds for over 2.5 goals are 1.75 in both the 6 and 12-match windows, consistently shorter than the market's 2.04. Poisson expected goals total approximately 3.0 across both sample windows, sitting comfortably above the 2.5 line.

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