Low combined Poisson output (~2.0 goals) and poor recent goal differences for both sides signal a tight game. The models price Over 2.5 much higher than the market, making the under attractive.

odds available at 09:45

Huesca have slightly better short-term form (1.33 vs 1.17) and a stronger goal difference (-3 vs -5) over 6 matches. The predicted fair odds from the goal-difference model (2.02) and Poisson model (2.30) are close to the market price, offering a modest edge for a home side with a slight ELO advantage.

odds available at 09:45

Low expected goals from the Poisson model and predicted fair odds for over 2.5 goals around 3.1 indicate the market overestimates a high-scoring game. Both teams have shown negative goal differences recently, supporting value in backing under.

odds available at 09:45

Strong short-term home form and the ELO model favours a home win, with a significant gap between predicted and market odds.

odds available at 09:45