Inter are rated odds-on by all three models with strong attacking metrics. The market still offers a small premium over fair value.

odds available at 09:45

Inter's home expected goals of 2.39 over 6 matches and exceptional recent form (2.33 points per game) make this a high-scoring fixture projection. The Poisson model's fair odds for over 2.5 goals sit at just 1.46 (6-match) and 1.43 (12-match), placing Under 2.5 probability at around 31-32%. The market offering Under 2.5 at 1.99 implies 50% — a substantial overestimation of the low-scoring probability against a dominant Inter attack.

odds available at 09:45

Inter's strong form and ELO advantage make them favorites, with predicted odds significantly lower than the market's 1.68. This offers value, particularly given Roma's inconsistent recent performances.

odds available at 09:45

Inter's Poisson xG is exceptionally high at 2.39-2.46 across both windows, with combined totals of 3.54-3.61. The fair odds for over 2.5 are modelled at 1.43-1.46, indicating substantial value at the 1.99 market price. Inter have a +20 goal difference over 12 matches and elite home form at 2.42 pts/game. The gap is large enough to warrant some caution, but Inter's dominance is well-established in Serie A.

odds available at 09:45

The statistical models indicate fair odds for a home win around 1.55, better than the market's 1.68, showing back value. Inter shows strong short-term home form and a favorable ELO rating mismatch against Roma.

odds available at 09:45