Inverness have strong medium-term form (2.5 average points per game over 12 games) and a significant ELO advantage (adjusted rating 1619 vs 1479), with the ELO model pricing a home win at 1.96 — well below the market's 2.66. The 12-game Poisson and form models both support fair odds around 1.85, indicating the market is underestimating Inverness's home strength.

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The analysis indicates value in backing the home side, with both the ELO model and medium-term form models suggesting fairer odds should be significantly shorter. Inverness's strong ELO rating and excellent form over the last 12 games point to the market underestimating them.

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Inverness have solid medium-term form and a positive goal difference, while the Poisson model gives them an expected goals edge. The market at 2.66 is higher than the model's fair odds, and the ELO rating clearly favours the home side.

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Inverness won League One last season and are now promoted to the Championship. Their 12-match form is excellent (2.5 PPG, +7 GD), the Poisson model projects 2.04 vs 1.32 xG in their favour, and the ELO model's fair odds of 1.96 suggest the market at 2.66 significantly underestimates the home side. The 12-match match odds model also gives fair odds of 1.85.

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Inverness have the better form profile over both time windows and the stronger expected-goals numbers. The ELO and fair-odds models also lean home, so the market is offering a bigger price than the data suggests.

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The home side boasts excellent recent form and positive expected goals metrics compared to their opponents. All statistical models, including ELO and goal difference, indicate the home win should be priced considerably lower than current market odds.

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Solid medium-term form at 2.5 points per game over 12 matches, ELO rating advantage of 1619 versus 1479, and models predict fair odds around 1.85-2.43. Market at 2.66 implies 37.5% probability while model estimates cluster 41-54%. Cautious stake given some model variance but underlying metrics support value.

odds available at 09:45

Inverness are ahead on recent form, medium-term form, goal difference, expected goals, and ELO. The market implies only 37.6%, while the analysis points to a fair home-win probability close to 49%.

odds available at 09:45