Recent form and expected goals point to very limited attacking output from both sides, with the short-term signals especially weak. The BTTS model strongly tilts to ‘No’, and the medium-term trend also supports a low-scoring, one-sided or 0-0 type result.

odds available at 10:45

Both teams are in very poor attacking form, with the Poisson model projecting only 0.5 and 0.83 expected goals respectively over the last 6 matches. The short-term model places fair odds for over 2.5 goals at 6.64, making the market price of 1.99 for over 2.5 extremely generous for the under — the statistical models strongly support a low-scoring affair.

odds available at 10:45

Both teams are in exceptionally poor recent form, with very low expected goals according to the Poisson model. Both short-term and medium-term analysis models indicate fair odds for under 2.5 goals should be significantly higher, suggesting the market is underestimating the likelihood of a low-scoring affair.

odds available at 10:45

Both teams have struggled offensively in recent matches, with low expected goals and negative goal differences. The predicted fair odds for Over 2.5 Goals are higher than the market's back price, suggesting the market may be overestimating goal likelihood.

odds available at 10:45

The statistical models show strong value for the away win, with the predicted fair odds ranging from 2.45 to 4.23 across different timeframes, all significantly lower than the market back price of 3.75. While both teams have poor recent form, the away side shows better underlying metrics in the short-term analysis.

odds available at 10:45

Both teams are in very poor form with low expected goals — the Poisson model projects only 0.5 xG for the home side and 0.83 for the away side over 6 matches, totalling just 1.33 expected goals. The predicted fair odds for over 2.5 goals are 6.64 (short-term) and 4.28 (medium-term), both far higher than the market's 1.99, indicating the market significantly overestimates goal production. Under 2.5 at 1.98 offers solid value given these low-scoring profiles.

odds available at 10:45