Both the ELO and performance-based models suggest Celtic's probability of winning is lower than the market odds imply. The predicted fair odds from all models are significantly higher than the current price, indicating that the market may be overrating the away team's chances.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams come in with strong recent form, strong scoring projections, and a high expected-goals profile. The models point clearly toward both sides finding the net more often than this price implies.

odds available at 09:45

Kilmarnock's excellent recent form and underlying expected goals metrics suggest they can make this fixture highly competitive against Celtic. The statistical models price the away win much closer to 1.75 - 2.75, making the heavily backed market odds of 1.41 a superb lay opportunity.

odds available at 09:45

Celtic's strong away form and high ELO rating give them a significant advantage over Kilmarnock. The predicted fair odds for a Celtic win are lower than the market odds, indicating value.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams are scoring freely with combined expected goals around four, and fair odds for over 2.5 are modelled at 1.30 short-term and 1.43 medium-term versus 1.50 in the market. Both sample windows and the goals data align on a high-scoring game.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams are in excellent scoring form with high expected goals (Kilmarnock 2.11 at home, Celtic 1.95 away), and the statistical model predicts both teams to score at roughly 70% probability, well above the market's implied 56.5%.

odds available at 09:45