Kilmarnock have the stronger recent form, the better goal trend, and a clear rating edge. The different win models all lean home, and the market is offering a bigger price than that profile warrants.

odds available at 09:45

A clear mismatch in recent form and expected goals heavily favours the home team. With the ELO model also backing a home win at shorter odds, the market price offers excellent value.

odds available at 09:45

Kilmarnock have much stronger recent form and goal-difference indicators, while Dundee Utd rate poorly across both windows. The match-win, goal-difference and ELO models all point to Kilmarnock being underpriced by the market.

odds available at 09:45

Kilmarnock have strong recent form and a dominant goal difference over a Dundee United side with poor form and defensive issues. The statistical models rate Kilmarnock around a 58% likelihood, so backing at 2.60 is strong value.

odds available at 09:45

Kilmarnock have a major short-term form and goal-difference advantage, with every result model favouring them at substantially shorter odds. The market's 38.5% implied probability materially understates the home side.

odds available at 09:45

Every model — form-based, goal-difference and ELO — prices a home win far shorter than the 2.60 on offer, with strong recent home form (2.17 ppg vs 0.33) and a big expected-goals edge (1.97 vs 0.83). Multiple aligned signals against a market implying just 38%.

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Kilmarnock's recent form (2.17 vs 0.33), expected goals edge (1.97 vs 0.83) and a +6 vs -8 goal difference all favour the home side strongly. Every model prices the home win between about 1.45 and 1.95, so the 2.60 market price looks like a clear underestimation despite the near-even market framing.

odds available at 09:45

Dominant short-term home form against very poor away form, backed by solid goal-difference and ELO edges, makes the home win more likely than the 38 percent the market implies at 2.60.

odds available at 09:45