Across short- and medium-term windows Kilmarnock rate stronger on expected goals and the ELO model still has them ahead. Being priced at 3.00 understates their true win chance.

odds available at 09:45

The market has St Mirren as favourites, but multiple analysis models, including ELO and form-based projections, suggest Kilmarnock should be favoured. The predicted fair odds from the analysis are consistently below the available market price, indicating a clear value opportunity in backing the home side.

odds available at 09:45

Kilmarnock has a solid ELO edge at home (1483 vs 1381) with all predicted match odds models favouring them (1.77-2.16). Market has them as clear underdog at 3.00, offering a sizeable gap. Slightly reduced stake given the modest form differential.

odds available at 09:45

Kilmarnock are favoured by the recent scoring model, medium-term trend, goal-difference model and ELO despite being priced as outsiders. The market implies only 33.3%, which looks too low given the consistency of the home-side signals.

odds available at 09:45

Kilmarnock have the better recent form, superior expected goals, and a stronger ELO rating, yet the market prices them as underdogs at 3.00. The statistical models all point to fair odds well below that, making Kilmarnock a value back.

odds available at 09:45

The main statistical, goal-difference and ELO models all make Kilmarnock more likely winners than the market suggests. Their superior short- and medium-term form and higher scoring projection support the home side, although the unusual market discrepancy warrants a restrained stake.

odds available at 09:45

Every signal — Poisson both windows, goal-difference model and ELO — makes Kilmarnock the clear favourite (fair odds roughly 1.77-2.39), yet the market prices them at 3.00 as underdogs. The gap is unusually large, so I'm staking small given the market may know something, but the statistical case for home value is the strongest on today's card.

odds available at 09:45

Multiple models indicate that Kilmarnock should be priced significantly lower than the current market odds of 3.00, with medium-term Poisson and goal difference fair odds at 1.77 and 2.08 respectively. Kilmarnock's superior medium-term form and goal expectancy give them a clear edge over St Mirren.

odds available at 09:45