The home price looks short: recent form and xG suggest a more balanced game, and several non-ELO models have the home win closer to 2.2–2.6. Even with an ELO edge for Las Palmas, 1.83 overstates their chances.

odds available at 09:45

The ELO model strongly favours Las Palmas at home with fair odds of 1.91, yet the market offers 1.81 — the ELO edge is meaningful though not extreme. Las Palmas have better medium-term form and a significantly higher ELO rating. The Poisson model also gives Las Palmas the higher xG. Capping at 2.0% as the form-based models are less aligned than the ELO signal alone.

odds available at 09:45

Las Palmas shows strong short-term form and a significant ELO advantage over Granada. The predicted odds from both the goal-difference and ELO models suggest the market is underestimating the home side, with the back price of 1.81 offering value compared to the model's fair odds.

odds available at 09:45

The ELO model strongly favours a home win with fair odds of 1.91 against a market price of 1.81, but the 150-point ELO gap (1619 vs 1469) is substantial. The Poisson and match odds models across both 6- and 12-match windows converge on Las Palmas as clear favourites. Home form over 12 matches (1.83 ppg) is solid versus Granada's poor 1.25. The market price of 1.81 implies ~55.2% probability; my blended assessment puts the true probability around 59.5%, offering a modest but real edge on a strong home favourite — fitting the Racing Santander template from yesterday.

odds available at 09:45