The Poisson model projects roughly 1.5 total expected goals with Sochaux offering very limited attacking output. Both time windows lean under, making 1.74 a value price.

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Poisson expected goals are extremely low at 1.17 home + 0.33 away = 1.50 total, consistent across both windows. The model's fair odds for Over 2.5 are 5.24, implying just 19% probability of exceeding 2.5 goals. The market offers Under 2.5 at 1.74 (57.5% implied), which significantly underestimates the under probability given the very low goal expectancy.

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Home short-term form and Poisson expected goals both favour Laval; the model fair odds near 1.74 versus the market price of 2.42 identify solid value on the home win.

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Expected goals from both the short and medium-term models are extremely low for both sides. The market significantly underestimates the probability of a low-scoring match, presenting substantial value on under 2.5 goals.

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The goal model projects a very low-scoring match, especially with Sochaux's attacking expectation extremely limited. The fair price for over 2.5 goals is much bigger than the market price, so the under looks underpriced at 1.74.

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Both windows project only 1.50 combined expected goals, with Sochaux contributing just 0.33. The statistical fair price strongly favours under 2.5 goals.

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Away expected goals are extremely low across both sample windows and fair BTTS odds are very long, pointing to a high chance of at least one blank. Both teams to score No is clearly underpriced versus that profile.

odds available at 09:45