Both sides show modest attacking output and the six-game trend leans toward a cagey match. The longer-term view also keeps three-plus goals below expectation, so the under is slightly underrated.

Both Lazio and Sassuolo have low short-term expected goals (0.83 and 1.33 respectively), and the fair odds model over the last 6 matches prices over 2.5 at 2.72 — implying under 2.5 at approximately 1.58 fair odds versus the market's 1.75. The medium-term window also shows low scoring tendencies, making under 2.5 goals well-supported at this price.

Lazio's recent form has been poor, contrasting with Sassuolo's more solid performances. Our short-term form models identify a significant discrepancy between the market odds and the calculated fair odds for an away win, suggesting value in backing the underdog.