The expected-goals numbers are modest in both windows, and both goal models project this as a lower-scoring match than the market suggests. The teams' recent profiles do not show the kind of attacking strength needed to justify this underdog price on the under.

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Both teams project for low scoring output, especially over the recent window, and the fair totals price is well below the market's expectation of goals. At 56.2% implied, under 2.5 looks undervalued.

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The expected goal totals are only 1.83 and 2.00 across the two windows, with both projections pricing over 2.5 goals above 3.00. Under 2.5 therefore has a clear edge over its 56.2% market-implied probability.

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Both teams show low scoring output in recent matches, and the expected-goals projection is well below the level needed for three goals. The statistical fair price for over 2.5 is much longer than the market, so under 2.5 has value.

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Both teams have low recent scoring expectancy with consistent readings across both the short and medium-term windows, making BTTS less likely than the near even-money price the market is offering.

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