The medium-term Poisson model projects combined expected goals of just 2.08 (Lecce 0.67, Roma 1.41), giving Under 2.5 an estimated fair probability of around 65%. While the short-term model suggests higher Roma xG, Lecce's very low attacking output across both windows (0.66 and 0.67 xG) suppresses overall goal expectation. The market at 1.89 (52.9% implied) underestimates the Under given the consistent evidence of Lecce's minimal attacking threat.

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Roma's strong short-term form and higher Poisson expected goals (1.97 vs 0.66) suggest attacking potential, while the predicted fair odds for Over 2.5 Goals (2.04) are lower than the market back price (2.10), indicating value. The ELO model also favors Roma, supporting a higher-scoring game.

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Roma's strong goal difference and ELO rating advantage are supported by a high expected goals projection. The market price of 1.49 underestimates Roma's win probability given their superior form and Lecce's poor recent results.

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Lecce's attacking projection is low in both recent windows, while Roma rate clearly stronger and should control large parts of the game. The fair price for both teams scoring is longer than the market, so 'No' is the value side.

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The Poisson model projects just 2.63 total expected goals (0.66 home, 1.97 away), and the predicted fair odds for over 3.5 goals are 3.69 over the last 6 matches. Market offers only 1.33 for under 3.5, but even this generous price still carries value given the strong defensive matchup and Roma's controlled away style. Multiple models converge: short-term predicted over 3.5 odds at 3.69, medium-term at 6.36, and Lecce's meagre 0.66 xG at home. The edge is clear and data-driven.

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Lecce's projected scoring output is low across both recent and medium-term samples, while Roma are favoured without needing a goal-heavy game. The market implies 56.8% for both teams not to score, and the analysis supports a modest but clear edge above that.

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Both the short and medium-term models put fair odds for BTTS 'No' around 1.58-1.72 versus the 1.76 on offer, driven by Lecce's very weak attacking output (expected goals of just 0.66-0.67 per game across both windows). Roma's low-conceding profile makes a home goal the weak link in the BTTS Yes case.

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