The ELO model favours Leeds and medium‑term numbers give them a slight xG edge at home. Market implies ~37% while fair looks mid‑40s.

odds available at 09:45

All analysis points towards value on a home win for Leeds. They have a superior ELO rating, better recent and medium-term form, and all three predictive models calculate their fair odds to be lower than what the market is offering, indicating a mispriced opportunity.

odds available at 09:45

Leeds enter this match with distinctly better short and medium-term form. The expected goals data and ELO strength evaluation both suggest a home win is far more likely than the current market evaluation.

odds available at 09:45

Leeds have a strong home form, with 1.67 points per game over the last 6 matches, and Brentford have a relatively weak away form, with 1 point per game over the last 6 matches. The predicted odds for a Leeds win are 2.53, which is lower than the market odds of 2.7, indicating some value in backing Leeds.

odds available at 09:45

Leeds have superior recent form and ELO strength against a Brentford side that has been inconsistent. The model fair odds suggest the 2.70 home price is value.

odds available at 09:45

All four models rate Leeds between 2.18 and 2.53 against the 2.70 on offer, with better short and medium-term form than Brentford plus a clear ELO edge. The odds fit the profile of value home backs above evens where the whole signal set points one way.

odds available at 09:45