Leeds' short-term form (2.33 points per game) and attacking expectation (roughly 2.0 vs 1.2 expected goals) are clearly superior, and the goal-difference model also favours them. Importantly the market already makes Leeds the favourite, so this backs the numbers and the market in the same direction at a price above the models' fair value.

odds available at 09:45

Leeds are in excellent touch with well over two points per game recently, a positive goal difference and a higher ELO rating than Manchester United, and the short-term goal model strongly favours them. The market prices the teams almost level, leaving value on the home side.

odds available at 09:45

Leeds' superior recent home form and expected goals give them a 56.2% win chance, while the market prices them at 2.62 (38.2% implied).

odds available at 09:45