Leonesa’s short-term form and chance creation are poor while Andorra rate better on recent performance, with multiple models making the home win a bigger price than the market. Even ELO is only neutral, so I’m comfortable opposing Leonesa at 2.60.

odds available at 09:45

Andorra CF's recent form and goal difference are superior to Leonesa's, and the ELO model slightly favors Andorra. The market odds for Andorra are higher than the predicted odds, suggesting potential value in backing them.

odds available at 09:45

Andorra CF shows better recent form than Leonesa, who have been in terrible form with just 0.33 points per game over their last 6 matches. The statistical models give Andorra CF a significant edge, with predicted odds around 1.63-1.99 compared to the market back price of 3.15. This represents substantial value despite Leonesa's slight ELO rating advantage.

odds available at 09:45

Leonesa's form is abysmal at 0.33 PPG over 6 matches and 0.75 over 12, with a goal difference of -7 and -13 respectively. The Poisson model gives fair home win odds of 5.04-6.85, yet the market prices Leonesa at just 2.56-2.60. Even the ELO model, which is closest to the market, suggests 2.86 fair odds. The market appears to be giving too much credit to home advantage for a team in terrible form with a deeply negative goal difference.

odds available at 09:45