Levante holds a significant ELO rating advantage over a struggling Sevilla side. The goal-difference based model also identifies strong value in a home win, and Levante's recent form is considerably better than the visitors.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams have struggled in recent form, with low expected goals (1.16 and 1.33 over 6 matches) and a predicted fair odds of 2.20 for Over 2.5 Goals. The market odds for Under 2.5 Goals (1.79) suggest value, as the true probability is higher than implied.

odds available at 09:45

Levante have better recent form (1.67 vs 0.83) and a superior goal difference (0 vs -4) over the last 6 matches, while Sevilla are struggling. The ELO model strongly favours Levante (1522 vs 1384) with predicted odds of 1.97, well below the market price of 2.54, suggesting the market is undervaluing the home side.

odds available at 09:45

The ELO model gives Levante fair odds of 1.97 and the goal-difference models range from 1.90 to 2.08, all substantially shorter than the market's 2.54. Levante are unbeaten in their last 4 home games (3 wins) and fighting desperately for La Liga survival from 19th, while Sevilla have won just 1 of their last 11 away league matches and recently changed manager. Both teams are in a relegation battle but Levante's home momentum and Sevilla's dismal away record support a home win being underpriced.

odds available at 09:45