Both the short- and medium-term goal models lean under, with Augsburg’s attack trending down and ELO gap not enough to force a shootout. Price overrates a 4+ goal game.

odds available at 09:45

All three models strongly favour Leverkusen: statistical model at 1.51, goal difference model at 1.74, and ELO model at 1.45 — the latter almost exactly matching the market. Leverkusen's ELO rating of 1721 dwarfs Augsburg's 1416, and the Poisson xG projection (2.26 home) is the highest of any home side in the Bundesliga fixtures today. The market at 1.46 is tight, but the model consensus and Augsburg's poor 12-match form (0.67 points per game) justify a modest stake.

odds available at 09:45

Leverkusen's dominant form and massive ELO advantage create exceptional value. The ELO model suggests fair odds of 1.45, the goal difference model shows 1.74, and the Poisson model indicates 1.51 - all significantly better than the market back price of 1.46.

odds available at 09:45