Low combined expected goals and Lille’s profile skewing defensive in recent games point under. Both the short- and medium-term totals models price the under shorter than the market.

odds available at 09:45

Lille's ELO rating (1728) is among the competition's highest vs Le Havre's 1386, producing a fair home win price of 1.38 — below the market's 1.45. The goal-difference model (both windows) prices Lille at 1.57 and Lille carry a +10 goal difference over the last six games versus Le Havre's weak 0.5/3 short-term form. The market implies 69.0% but true probability is closer to 71%.

odds available at 09:45

A strong statistical consensus points to a home win, underpinned by a significant ELO rating advantage for Lille. The ELO model's fair odds of 1.38 indicate clear value against the available price. Le Havre's poor recent form further strengthens the case for a comfortable home victory.

odds available at 09:45

Lille have a +10 goal difference over 6 matches and strong medium-term form (1.75 points per game), while Le Havre have just 0.67 points per game over 12 matches. The ELO model rates Lille at 1.38, and the Poisson expected goals strongly favour the home side.

odds available at 09:45

The home team has a superior ELO rating and strong goal difference over the last 6 matches, while the away team shows poor form. Models suggest fair odds for home win lower than market, with aligned signals for value.

odds available at 09:45

Lille's ELO (1728) dwarfs Le Havre's (1386) and the ELO model fair price is 1.38. Strong home goal difference (+10 over six), superior xG and form across both windows all align — 1.45 is solid value.

odds available at 09:45