Lincoln's short-term form is outstanding at 2.67 points per game with an exceptional goal difference, while Rotherham's form is dire at 0.5 over six matches with a deeply negative goal difference. The ELO model and all statistical models strongly favour Lincoln, with fair odds around 1.29-1.40; the market price of 1.36 is reasonable but the convergence of evidence across all models gives confidence.

odds available at 10:45

Lincoln have outstanding form across both windows (2.67 in both 6 and 12 matches) with a +21 goal difference over 12 games. All models strongly favour Lincoln — Poisson gives 1.38-1.40, ELO gives 1.29, and the goal-difference model gives 1.13. Rotherham are in dreadful form (0.5 short-term, 0.92 medium-term) with a -6 goal difference. The back price of 1.36 represents solid value.

odds available at 10:45