The ELO model makes Livingston strong favourites at 1.83 fair odds, and the goal-difference model agrees at 1.94. Market offers 1.48 which implies 67.6%, but with home ELO rating of 1713 vs away 1543 and short-term form both at 1.5, the true probability is closer to 70%. The value gap is modest but multiple models align.

odds available at 09:45

The market heavily overvalues Livingston at a lay price of 1.53, whereas all of our models price their win odds significantly higher, with form-based models pricing them above 2.20. This is strongly supported by real-world standings, where undefeated Stenhousemuir is currently leading the Championship table.

odds available at 09:45

All model families price the home win far longer than the market's 1.48-1.53, with fair estimates ranging from 1.83 (ELO) to over 2.2 (form), and the goal-difference model even leans towards the away side. The visitors carry a strong positive goal difference and better medium-term form, so the market looks to be overrating the favourite.

odds available at 09:45

The home side's medium-term form and goal difference are both inferior to the visitor, while the ELO model prices a home win at 1.83 versus the market's 1.48, suggesting the market is overrating Livingston.

odds available at 09:45

All models rate Livingston's true win chance well below the ~65% implied by the market — even the ELO model, the most favourable to the hosts, makes them only around a 1.83 shot. Stenhousemuir actually carry the better recent form and a far superior goal difference (+10 over 12 games against Livingston's -6). The price looks built on reputation rather than current evidence, so I'm opposing the short-priced favourite.

odds available at 09:45