Attacking output is elevated on both sides (≈1.8 vs 1.5 xG), and the models rate BTTS around 60–65% versus a market ~54%. Recent and medium-term trends agree.

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Both form-based models indicate value, suggesting the probability of both teams scoring is higher than the market odds imply. This is supported by solid attacking metrics for both sides in their recent fixtures.

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Lyon's form, Poisson expected goals, and ELO ratings all favor them over Auxerre. The predicted fair odds for a Lyon win (1.97-2.20) are much lower than the market back price (1.48), suggesting strong value.

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BTTS predicted fair odds are 1.54 (short-term) and 1.68 (medium-term) versus market 1.86, indicating the market underestimates both teams scoring. Poisson xG of 1.81 for Lyon and 1.24-1.49 for Auxerre supports both teams finding the net. Lyon's home form is strong but Auxerre's recent xG output suggests they will contribute goals.

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Short and medium-term expected goals projections highlight capable attacking output from both sides. The prediction models confidently price Both Teams to Score much lower than the market, indicating a clear undervaluation by the bookmakers.

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ELO model prices Lyon at 1.55 fair odds, while market offers 1.48. Short-term form is 1.67 vs 0.83, medium-term 2.08 vs 0.92. The ELO rating gap is massive (1684 vs 1427). Market implies 67.6%, but true probability closer to 68-70% given model convergence. Cautious stake as value gap is tight.

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The goal-expectancy models price Lyon at only around 2.0-2.2 (roughly a coin-flip), as Auxerre carry a respectable away attacking output of ~1.5 expected goals, while even the ELO model makes Lyon just a 1.55 shot — all above the market's 1.49. Lyon's home form is good but not dominant enough to justify a ~67% implied win chance, so there's a modest lay edge on the favourite.

odds available at 09:45