Lyon are in exceptional short-term form with 2.5 points per game over 6 matches and a 175-point ELO advantage. The ELO model fair odds are 1.81, medium-term Poisson gives 1.75, and the short-term model 2.21 — with the market at 1.64, it's broadly at fair value to slightly generous. Lorient are poor away (0.83 form over 12 matches) and this match falls in the target odds range for value.

odds available at 09:45

Despite Lyon's strong recent results, multiple underlying performance models and the ELO model suggest they are overvalued at this price. Lorient's form is also respectable, indicating this match could be closer than the market expects, creating value in the lay.

odds available at 09:45