Lyon have dominant short-term form and xG plus a strong ELO edge; fair sits around 1.5–1.6, so 1.95 is standout value.

odds available at 09:45

A compelling fixture where all signals point to a home victory against a team in dreadful form. All analysis models, including ELO and Poisson, suggest Lyon's fair odds should be much shorter (around 1.55), indicating significant value.

odds available at 09:45

Lyon are in strong form (2.17 over six, 2.33 over twelve) with a +7 goal difference, while Nice have collapsed to 0.33 points per game and -2 goal difference. The Poisson model prices Lyon at 1.26, the goal-difference model at 1.65, and the ELO model at 1.53, all far shorter than the 1.95 available. The 1.95 price implies 51.3%, leaving a large and well-supported edge.

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Lyon are strongly favoured by every main signal: much better short-term form, a big expected-goals edge, and a clear ELO superiority. The market is giving Nice more chance than the numbers support.

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Lyon's short-term form is excellent while Nice's is dreadful, with a large ELO gap and expected goals disparity. All three model fair prices put Lyon much shorter than the market offers.

odds available at 09:45

Dominant home form, superior ELO rating, and a massive expected goals advantage strongly support a home win against a struggling away side.

odds available at 09:45

The market implies only 51.3% for a Lyon win, but the statistical fair prices are consistently much shorter. Lyon have strong short- and medium-term form, a clear expected-goals advantage, positive goal-difference signals and a major ELO edge over Nice.

odds available at 09:45

Lyon's strong home form and high Poisson expected goals contrast sharply with Nice's very poor recent form, and all models price Lyon far shorter than the market 1.95. The ELO and goal-difference edges strongly favour the home win.

odds available at 09:45

Lyon have dominant short- and medium-term form, a large projected scoring advantage and a much stronger ELO rating. Every principal match-winner model prices them shorter than the market.

odds available at 09:45

Every model points the same way: strong short-term and medium-term home form, a huge goal-expectation gap (around 2.4 vs 0.5 expected goals), a dominant goal-difference profile and a clear ELO advantage all make Lyon a far stronger favourite than the price suggests. Nice are in dreadful recent form, and the statistical fair price is around 1.50 against a market offering 1.95.

odds available at 09:45

Every major model aligns on a strong home win: dominant short- and medium-term form, a large ELO gap, and heavy home goal expectation against a very weak away side. The market price still implies only about half a chance, which understates Lyon’s clear superiority.

odds available at 09:45

Multiple analysis models align on a Lyon home victory, with short-term Poisson (1.26), ELO (1.53), and goal difference metrics (1.57-1.65) all finding fair odds well below the market price of 1.95. Lyon's recent home form score (2.17) and goal expectation (2.39 xG) comfortably eclipse Nice's poor form (0.33) and low threat (0.49 xG).

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Lyon's dominant recent form, expected-goals edge, and strength advantage contrast with Nice's poor away record. The market price is still generous.

odds available at 09:45

Nice are in very poor recent form while Lyon are excelling, with Lyon well ahead on goal difference, expected goals, and ELO rating. Every model (short-term, medium-term, ELO) agrees Lyon's win probability is considerably higher than the market's 1.95 price suggests.

odds available at 09:45

Lyon's short and medium-term form is far superior to Nice's, with a strongly positive goal difference and a large ELO advantage. All three models price Lyon as a clear favourite around 1.45-1.55, so the market's 1.95 looks too generous.

odds available at 09:45

All the models give Lyon a 60-65% chance of winning, well above the 51% implied by the market. Lyon have strong form over both windows, while Nice's recent form is very poor. The ELO model and the Poisson goal expectation both clearly favour the home side, and I have discounted the models' figure to be cautious.

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Lyon are in outstanding home form while Nice have been very poor. The goal expectation model heavily favours Lyon's attack, and the market odds appear too generous given the massive form disparity.

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Lyon's recent home performance and goal difference are dominant, and the Poisson model estimates a 79.4% chance of a home win, far above the market's 1.95 price (51.3% implied).

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Every analytical model strongly favours a home victory, with the ELO, goal-difference, and statistical fair odds all priced between 1.26 and 1.65 against the market price of 1.95. Lyon boast dominant short-term and medium-term form alongside a massive expected goals advantage.

odds available at 09:45