Mainz are in excellent short-term form (2.33 points per game over 6 matches) while Freiburg have been very poor (0.67 over the same window). The short-term Poisson model gives Mainz fair odds of 1.63 and the ELO model 1.94, both substantially lower than the market price of 2.36, suggesting the market significantly underestimates the home side. The 2.36 price sits comfortably in my target 1.35–1.80 range for value and this fixture falls within the Bundesliga where data quality is higher.

odds available at 09:45

Mainz's attacking form and Freiburg's defensive record suggest both teams are likely to score. The predicted BTTS odds of 2.34 support this, offering value over the market's 1.70.

odds available at 09:45

Mainz bring strong short-term form, a healthier goal outlook, and a solid ratings edge into this match. Freiburg's recent trend is poor, so the home win price looks a touch too big.

odds available at 09:45