Models put both teams to score in the mid‑50s to 60% with near‑symmetric attacking projections. The market is sub‑47%, creating clear value on ‘Yes’.

odds available at 09:45

The market prices Mallorca at 1.49-1.50 (implied ~67%), but the ELO model gives fair home odds of 1.94 (~51.5%), the 12-month form model gives 1.71 (~58.5%), and the 6-month goal-difference model gives 1.96. All three models consistently suggest the market is overestimating Mallorca's win probability by 10-15 percentage points, making a lay at 1.50 defensible with a small stake.

odds available at 09:45

All statistical models suggest the market has heavily overpriced a Mallorca win. The short-term goal expectation is identical for both teams, and the fair odds calculated by the models are significantly higher, creating a clear value opportunity to bet against the home side.

odds available at 09:45

Mallorca's superior form (1.83 vs 0.83), ELO rating (1516 vs 1373), and predicted odds (2.65) all strongly favor them. The market's odds (1.49) imply a 67.1% chance, slightly below the predicted probability, offering marginal value.

odds available at 09:45

Mallorca's medium-term form (1.75 points per game) is significantly stronger than Oviedo's (0.50), and the ELO model gives Mallorca a clear advantage (1516 vs 1373). The predicted fair odds from the Poisson model (1.71) and ELO model (1.94) both suggest the market price of 1.49 offers BACK value on the home side.

odds available at 09:45

Mallorca's medium-term form model values them at 1.71 and ELO model at 1.94, both shorter than the market 1.49 only marginally, but Oviedo's very weak away form (0.83 short-term, 0.5 over 12) and large ELO deficit support a fair home win probability around 70%.

odds available at 09:45

Three models all price Mallorca well below 1.49: ELO at 1.94, goal-difference at 2.02, and medium-term form at 1.71. Mallorca have superior short-term form (1.83 vs 0.83) and a significant ELO edge. Oviedo have been poor with negative goal difference in both windows. Market may undervalue home dominance.

odds available at 09:45