Despite Man Utd's strong home form, Crystal Palace's away expected goals over 12 months is very low at 1.24, and the Poisson model for Palace away sits at just 0.99. Both the 6 and 12-month statistical models suggest fair odds for over 2.5 goals are around 1.66-1.69, implying under 2.5 is the value side. The market price of 2.40 for under 2.5 looks generous given both models point to this being a lower-scoring game than the market implies.