The hosts have shown robust recent form while the visitors have struggled significantly. With the short-term and medium-term predictive models, alongside the ELO rating, strongly pointing to a home advantage, the market odds offer clear value.

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Mantova's strong short-term home form and superior expected goals metrics give them a distinct edge over an Empoli side struggling on the road. The ELO and Poisson models both indicate the home win is more likely than the market's implied probability suggests.

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Mantova has demonstrated great home capability, and the statistical models consistently value a home win lower than the generous market price while Empoli continues to struggle away.

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Mantova's recent form is much better than Empoli's and their home attacking output has been strong. The model fair odds and ELO comparison put the true probability above the 2.16 offered.

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The home team has enjoyed considerably stronger recent form and expected goal performance, and the model's favored odds signal that the market is not fully accounting for this home team dominance.

odds available at 09:45