Mantova's short-term form is 2.5 with a Poisson home xG of 1.97 versus Pisa's 0.66, and the six-month model prices the home win at 1.46 fair — almost half the market's 2.84. The 12-month goal-difference model (1.26) reflects Pisa's terrible away goal difference of -14. Even the more conservative 12-month form model at 1.82 is well below the market, indicating genuine statistical value across multiple windows.

odds available at 09:45

Mantova's recent form is dramatically stronger, with positive medium-term goal difference compared with Pisa's minus 14. Most match models assign Pisa a much lower win chance than the market-implied 35.5%.

odds available at 09:45

Mantova's short-term form is excellent while Pisa's is very poor, and the Poisson model makes the home side a clear favourite at odds well below the market. The even match-odds price looks soft given the form and expected-goals gap, though ELO is closer so the stake stays small.

odds available at 09:45