The analysis shows extremely low expected goals for both teams over recent matches, with the Poisson model projecting 0 goals for the home side and 0.5 for the away side. The predicted fair odds for under 1.5 goals are 6.93 (12-window) and 11.09 (6-window), yet the market offers 3.10. The goal difference models and ELO ratings also suggest a tight, low-scoring affair. Despite the market being lower than model predictions, the true probability of under 1.5 goals in a match with such minimal attacking output appears significantly higher than the market-implied 32.3%.

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