There's a substantial difference in quality as measured by ELO rating, which is not fully reflected in the market price. This is compounded by a huge disparity in recent form, with the home team in excellent shape and the visitors struggling badly.

odds available at 09:55

Middlesbrough's strong recent form, goal difference, and ELO rating all point to a clear home advantage. The predicted odds suggest the market is undervaluing their chances, with multiple models aligning on a high probability of a home win.

odds available at 09:55

Middlesbrough's recent form (2.33 vs 0.17) and a large ELO gap (1670 vs 1357) align with the Poisson and goal-difference models, all pointing to a home win at fair odds around 1.4-1.9. The 1.50 back price offers clear value.

odds available at 09:55

Middlesbrough are in excellent short-term form (2.33 ppg over last 6) against a Cardiff side with dreadful recent form (0.17 ppg). The ELO gap is huge (1670 vs 1357) and all three model variants price the home win significantly shorter than 1.50, with the ELO model fair value at 1.43.

odds available at 09:55

All three fair-value models price Middlesbrough well below the 1.50 market: the main model, goal-difference and ELO models all favour a comfortable home win. Strong short-term home form against a Cardiff side in dreadful recent form, and a large ELO gap support the edge.

odds available at 09:55