While the hosts are stronger, the blended ELO and form models price them nearer 1.75–1.80, not 1.40. With totals not projecting a blowout, the home win is too short.

odds available at 10:45

Middlesbrough's Poisson-derived expected goals are strong (1.65 for home) and Charlton contribute a respectable 1.16 away xG over the last 6 matches. The short-term statistical model puts fair odds for over 2.5 at just 1.87, and the medium-term model at 2.21 — the market price of 1.76 sits comfortably below the short-term fair value, indicating potential back value. Middlesbrough's excellent goal difference of +10 over 12 matches further supports an attacking, high-scoring home performance.

odds available at 10:45

The short-term statistical model suggests a significantly higher chance of both teams scoring than the market odds imply. The home side has strong attacking metrics, and while the away side's form is weaker, their recent expected goals suggest they can contribute.

odds available at 10:45

Middlesbrough's recent form and ELO rating are significantly stronger than Charlton's. The market odds underestimate the likelihood of a Middlesbrough win, presenting a clear value opportunity.

odds available at 14:45