Despite Middlesbrough's strong short-term form and high Poisson xG of 2.52, the medium-term window shows more modest figures and Wolves' away Poisson xG drops considerably in the 12-match window. The 12-match predicted Under 2.5 fair odds of ~2.11 are below market, but the short-term window signals higher scoring — this is a moderate edge at best and staked conservatively.

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Middlesbrough's strong short-term form and superior expected-goals projection have the models pricing them around 1.65-2.2, while the market offers 2.20. The edge is moderate rather than large, but the signals point the same way.

odds available at 09:45

Boro's short-term attacking form and expected-goal profile stand out strongly in this fixture. The fair odds favour the home side more than the market price does.

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All three models (short-term form, medium-term form, ELO) agree Middlesbrough are notably stronger than the market price of 2.20 suggests, with the Poisson model also showing a big expected-goals edge for the hosts (2.52 vs 1.46).

odds available at 09:45

Middlesbrough have strong short-term home form, the ELO and goal-difference models favour them, and their expected goals are much higher. The market appears to underrate the home side.

odds available at 09:45

Middlesbrough have strong short-term home form and a clear ELO edge. Every model prices a Wolves win at 4.01-5.01, against a market price of 3.55 (28%), so laying Wolves has value as the smaller-stake way to back Middlesbrough to win or draw.

odds available at 09:45