Both sides carry strong recent form with elevated expected goals, and the totals models agree on a high-scoring tilt. The market is pricing the over like a coin flip, which underrates the true chance.

Millwall show excellent short-term form (2.17 points per game over last 6) with an xG of 2.11, and all three models strongly favour them: the ELO model gives fair odds of 1.91, the goal-difference model 1.70, and the Poisson model 2.20 — all well below the market back price of 2.14. The home side's ELO rating is 150 points above Derby's, and a positive goal difference of +13 over 12 matches underscores sustained dominance.

Millwall possess a significant ELO rating advantage and are in excellent recent form at home. The ELO model suggests fair odds for a Millwall win should be shorter, identifying clear value in backing the home side.