This is the Championship playoff semi-final second leg at The Den, where Millwall have home advantage after a 0-0 first leg. The analysis confirms strong short and medium-term home form (2.0 over 6 matches), superior goal difference, and the ELO model makes Millwall a clear favourite at 1.74. The statistical models predict home win odds of ~2.05-2.13, meaningfully below the market's 1.81 back price — suggesting slight lay value on Millwall at first glance, but the market at 1.81 is already pricing Millwall as favourite. However, research confirms Hull had just 0.46 xG and one shot on target in the first leg, and have been poor away from home — winless in six of last seven on the road. Millwall dominated the first leg with 62% possession and 15 shots. The market price of 1.81 (55.2% implied) is supported by analysis and the on-field evidence; the true probability is estimated higher at ~58%, providing modest but clear back value.

odds available at 09:45

Millwall's strong short-term and medium-term form, coupled with a significant goal difference advantage and ELO rating, suggests they are undervalued at these odds. The predicted fair odds align closely with this assessment.

odds available at 09:45

Millwall's short-term form (2.0 points per game) and +5 goal difference over 6 matches significantly outpace Hull's poor form (0.83) and -1 goal difference. The ELO rating gap (1663 vs 1471) and goal-difference model fair odds (1.53) both suggest the market price of 1.81 undervalues Millwall.

odds available at 09:45

Millwall's medium-term goal-difference model implies fair odds around 1.53, with ELO at 1.74 — both well below the 1.81 market. Strong home form, large ELO gap, and superior expected goals make this a reasonable value back.

odds available at 09:45

Multiple models align on Millwall value: ELO fair odds 1.74, goal-difference 1.53, and match-odds model 2.05 over 6 games. Millwall's short-term form is solid at 2.0 PPG with a +5 goal difference, while Hull struggles at 0.83 PPG. Home advantage in a relegation-threatened league context adds further support.

odds available at 09:45