Both sides are creating around 1.8 xG recently and the over is supported by both short- and medium-term models. Expect an open game with chances at both ends.

odds available at 09:45

The models find strong value on an open, high-scoring game here. Both teams are in good form and their underlying short-term expected goals figures are high, suggesting the market is under-pricing the probability of three or more goals.

odds available at 09:45

Combined Poisson xG is 3.62 over 6 matches and 3.30 over 12 matches. The model's predicted fair odds for over 2.5 are 1.43 (6-match) and 1.56 (12-match), both well below the market's 1.96. Millwall's strong home form (+6 GD over 6) and Norwich's decent away form create a high-scoring environment in a Championship match with good goal expectancy from both sides.

odds available at 09:45