Recent goal models project a low total with both sides showing limited attacking output. Short- and medium-term estimates both lean under, yet the market is pricing under 2.5 near a coin flip.

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Both Poisson expected goals figures are very low (1.00 and 1.17), and the short-term fair odds for Over 2.5 sit at 2.72, implying Under 2.5 probability around 63% — meaningfully above the market-implied 53% at 1.87 back. Both teams have modest recent form scores and the statistical models consistently point to a low-scoring encounter.

odds available at 09:45

Albacete's recent form and goal difference are superior to the home side's. Statistical models based on recent performance suggest they are underestimated by the market, indicating value in backing an away win.

odds available at 09:45

The predicted over 2.5 goals odds (2.31-2.72) suggest a 37-43% probability, while the market offers 2.08 (48% implied). Albacete's recent form and goal difference indicate attacking potential, making this a reasonable value bet.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams show modest expected goals and the predicted fair odds for under 2.5 goals are 1.87, aligning closely with the market price. The medium-term data suggests a lower-scoring tendency, with both teams averaging around 1 goal per game over their last 12 matches.

odds available at 09:45

The predicted fair odds for over 1.5 goals are 1.57 over 6 matches and 1.44 over 12 matches, implying probabilities of 64-69%. Combined Poisson expected goals range from 2.17 to 2.41 depending on window. The market back price of 1.36 implies 73.5%, which sits slightly below my blended estimate of around 77% when weighting the 12-match sample more heavily given its stronger xG figures.

odds available at 09:45

Statistical models indicate fair odds for an away win lower than the market offering, driven by the away team's stronger short-term form and superior goal difference compared to the home side.

odds available at 09:45