Reggiana’s attack rates are weak across recent samples and the BTTS model leans to 'No', indicating a lower total game. Multiple models price the under around the mid‑1.5s, so 2.06 is generous.

odds available at 08:45

There is a strong consensus across multiple analysis models (ELO, short-term form, goal difference) that Modena is undervalued at the current market price. This is heavily influenced by the away side's extremely poor recent form and low goalscoring expectation.

odds available at 09:45

Modena's strong home form and significantly higher Poisson xG (1.65 vs 0.5) indicate a clear attacking advantage. The ELO model also favors Modena with predicted odds of 1.54, well below the market price.

odds available at 09:45

Modena's form is solid (1.5 points per game) against Reggiana's poor 0.67, and the Poisson model shows a huge expected goals advantage (1.65 vs 0.5). The ELO rating difference (1606 vs 1344) and predicted odds around 1.52-1.89 all point to Modena being significantly undervalued at 1.73.

odds available at 09:45

Reggiana's away Poisson xG is extremely low at 0.50 (6-match) and 0.75 (12-match), with terrible form of 0.67 ppg in both windows and -4/-9 goal difference. The BTTS predicted fair odds of 2.51-3.15 imply only a 32-40% chance of both teams scoring, making BTTS No significantly underpriced at 2.08.

odds available at 08:45

Recent form and rating strength both lean to Modena, while Reggiana's attacking projection is weak and their medium-term results are poor. The market is close, but I still make the home side a bit more likely than the price implies.

odds available at 09:45

Short-term and medium-term form metrics align with a substantial ELO rating advantage to back a home win. Poisson goal expectations imply a fair price closer to 1.54, providing a comfortable edge on the available market odds.

odds available at 09:45