Multiple models converge on Livingston being overvalued at 1.64. The ELO model's fair away odds are 1.88, the form-based match odds models give 3.72-3.76, and the goal difference models range from 3.25 to 3.80. Both teams are in terrible form (0.83 and 0.67 points per game) with a significant mismatch only appearing in ELO, which still values Livingston well above the market price.

odds available at 09:45

Morton and Livingston have consistently struggled in attack, producing meager expected goal figures under 1.0 per match. Goal expectation models across both sample windows heavily point towards a tight, low-scoring encounter, establishing significant value on Under 2.5 Goals.

odds available at 09:45