Poisson totals are high and both windows price Over notably shorter than the market. A strong both-teams-to-score signal further supports a goals-heavy game.

odds available at 09:45

Combined Poisson xG is 3.28 (short-term) and 3.05 (medium-term), both pointing clearly above the 2.5 threshold. Fair odds for O2.5 are estimated at 1.57-1.70, while the market offers 1.90, implying only 52.6% probability versus my estimate of around 60%. Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently despite poor overall form.

odds available at 09:45

Both time windows project this as a game with around three expected goals or more, and both teams are also priced as fairly likely to score. With the goal models making over 2.5 shorter than the market, the over looks underpriced.

odds available at 09:45

Dunkerque shows a clear expected goal advantage in this away fixture, with the statistical model projecting substantially more goal output than their opponents. The model's fair odds for an away win diverge from the market prices, suggesting the visiting team's goal-scoring potential is undervalued.

odds available at 09:45