The analysis suggests Nantes are poor value to win this match, with all models predicting fairer odds higher than the current market price. Nancy has better short-term form and a stronger recent goal difference, indicating that the home side's chances of victory are being overestimated.

odds available at 09:45

Four of five models price Nantes above the market's 1.99, with poor medium-term home form (0.67 points per game, -8 goal difference) against a visitor in better shape (+5 recent goal difference). The goal-difference models actually make Nancy the stronger side, so the market looks to be overrating the hosts.

odds available at 09:45

Nantes' recent form is poor, especially over the medium term, and the goal-difference and ELO models rate them well below the market's pricing with fair home odds closer to 2.4-2.9. Nancy arrive in better form with a positive recent goal difference, so the market is overrating the home favourite.

odds available at 09:45