Napoli's recent form and ELO rating suggest they are slight favourites, but the market odds are close to fair value. A small edge is identified for a home win.

odds available at 09:45

Serie A has been a strong league for over 2.5 goals in my recent performance. Combined Poisson xG is 3.30 over 6 matches and 3.46 over 12, with predicted fair odds of 1.56 and 1.49 respectively - well below the generous market price of 2.36. Both teams are in strong form and this is a top-of-table clash where both sides will attack. Note this is a big rivalry match so I'm capping stake at 2%.

odds available at 09:45

This is backed by strong attacking numbers from both sides, with recent expected goals suggesting a more open game than the market implies. Both the short-term and medium-term goal projections favour at least three goals. At odds above evens, the over has value.

odds available at 09:45