Both sides show strong short-term attacking output and elevated expected goals. Multiple models price Over 3.5 notably shorter than the market.

odds available at 10:55

The home side shows superior medium-term form and a significant ELO rating advantage. Statistical models, particularly the ELO and medium-term models, indicate the market price offers good value for a home victory.

odds available at 10:55

Both the short-term and medium-term Poisson models predict combined expected goals of around 4.0, with predicted fair odds for over 2.5 goals at 1.30-1.32. The market at 1.42 offers value against models suggesting ~76% probability. NEC's strong home expected goals and positive goal difference support a high-scoring game.

odds available at 10:55

The statistical model indicates fair odds for a home win around 2.06, but the market lay price of 1.76 suggests an overestimated probability, creating lay value. Strong medium-term home form supports this, though the ELO model slightly favors the home side less than the market.

odds available at 10:55