The market makes Aris a strong favourite, but short-term form and medium-term trends don’t support them at this price. Even the ELO view is longer than the market, suggesting Aris are overrated.

odds available at 09:45

Both teams' Poisson xG sits at just 1.00 per side over six matches, with fair odds for Over 2.5 modelled at 3.10 (short-term) and 3.60 (medium-term) — implying approximately 68% probability of Under 2.5. The market prices Under 2.5 at only 2.06 (48.5% implied), a meaningful gap backed by both analysis windows pointing to a low-scoring fixture.

odds available at 09:45

The goal projections are low in both short-term and medium-term samples, and the fair price for over 2.5 goals is much bigger than the market suggests. With limited attacking output expected from either side and the away team only a modest favourite, this looks more likely to stay under than the market implies.

odds available at 09:45