Lille’s recent form and xG profile are stronger and the models make them favourites or close to it. Taking 2.26 captures a clear margin over fair.

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Lille have a perfect short-term form score of 3.0 and a Poisson xG of 1.81 away versus Nice's 0.50. The short-term statistical model prices Lille at 1.44 fair — dramatically below the market's 2.26 — and even the medium-term model (1.89) and ELO model (2.01) place Lille well below the market price. This is one of the clearest multi-signal value cases in today's slate.

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Nice’s attacking projection is weak, especially in the short-term view, while Lille come in with much stronger recent form. The BTTS analysis leans clearly against both teams scoring, so the price on 'No' looks generous.

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Lille is in perfect short-term form with a high expected goals output, whereas Nice is struggling significantly at home. The statistical models unanimously price an away win shorter than the market, highlighting a clear value opportunity.

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The market implies 44.2%, but Lille are strongly favoured by the recent form, expected goals and ELO-based views. Nice’s short-term form and goal difference are poor, while Lille’s recent results are excellent.

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Lille arrive with perfect recent form while Nice have been poor, and all three models (form, goal difference and ELO) price a Lille win well shorter than the 2.26 on offer. Nice's recent goal output is weak, giving a clear multi-signal edge for the away side.

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Lille arrive with a perfect last-six away form score while Nice have managed under a point per game at home with a home goal expectation of just 0.5. The short-window model makes Lille a clear favourite (fair around 1.4-1.9) yet the market offers 2.26, a solid edge.

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Lille's recent form is flawless while Nice are struggling badly on points and goal difference. Poisson and ELO fair odds both make Lille a shorter price than the market offers, so the away win is underpriced on aligned attacking and strength signals.

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Lille bring perfect short-term away form into this match against a Nice team struggling with poor home results and negative goal difference. ELO strength, medium-term trends, and Poisson goal calculations all align to indicate Lille's win probability is underestimated by the bookmakers.

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Lille's excellent short-term form and superior attacking metrics contrast sharply with Nice's struggling form and low goal expectation. The market's away price is more generous than the statistical fair odds indicate.

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Lille arrive in excellent short-term form with much higher expected goals and ELO rating than Nice. Predicted fair odds for an away win are shorter than the market price.

odds available at 09:45