The teams have low combined expected-goal projections in both time windows, with the totals models strongly favouring under 2.5 goals. That supports a probability comfortably above the market's 56.5%.

odds available at 09:55

Both sides show weak recent form and very low expected goals in the supplied models. The market is still pricing a much higher chance of three goals than the short- and medium-term scoring trends support.

odds available at 09:55

Both sides have struggling attacks, with expected goals under one per team over both the short and medium term. Both windows put the chance of under 2.5 goals at about 80%. Even heavily discounted, that beats the 56.5% the market implies.

odds available at 09:55