The analysis suggests that the probability of both teams scoring is lower than the market odds imply. The model's fair odds for 'Yes' are consistently above 1.95, indicating value on the 'No' selection. This is supported by the low expected goals figure for the away side.

odds available at 09:45

Norwich have the stronger attacking outlook, but Birmingham's projected scoring rate is modest and both total-goal models sit close to or below this line. That makes the market a little too aggressive on goals for a match that profiles more like 1-0, 2-0 or 1-1.

odds available at 09:45

Norwich has a strong home form and the Poisson model expects them to score more goals than Birmingham, giving them an edge in the match.

odds available at 09:45

Combined expected goals sit around 2.4-2.6 with modest attacking output from both sides, and the models fair-value under 3.5 goals around 1.35-1.43. The market price of 1.43 offers a thin but acceptable edge on a low-scoring Championship fixture.

odds available at 09:45