Model fair odds across multiple windows and ELO rating show clear value on the home side, with the market price significantly higher than the statistical expectation.

odds available at 09:55

The market has Notts Co as the outsider, but the win models and strength ratings make them the likelier side. Their medium-term form, goal output and attacking projections are stronger, so I rate the home win well above the market view.

odds available at 09:55

The ELO model and both short and medium-term predictions strongly favour the home side, contradicting the market's pricing of Bradford as the favourite. With Notts Co showing superior recent form and goal difference, there is substantial value in opposing the visitors.

odds available at 09:55

The medium-term form, goal-difference models and ELO ratings all favour Notts Co, despite the market making Bradford favourite. The offered price implies 31.3%, well below my cautious 46.0% estimate.

odds available at 09:55

The Poisson, goal-difference and ELO models all make Notts Co the favourite at home, with the stronger medium-term scoring profile and a clear ELO advantage, yet the market prices them as a sizeable underdog. Stake kept moderate given the size of the disagreement with the market.

odds available at 09:55

Medium-term form, Poisson projections, goal-difference models and ELO all price a Notts County win far shorter than the market odds, creating a clear multi-signal value gap on the home side.

odds available at 09:55